The countdown to the NRL finals is well and truly on, with only six weeks left in the 2026 NRL season.
While some teams delve into calculations, others will be consulting their schedules as they consider resting players, there's still much to unfold before the knockout stage begins.
For this discussion, we will assume, based on the projected top eight, that the threshold for finals qualification will be a straight 32 points in 2026-equating to 13 wins and 3 byes.
Here's a breakdown of what each team needs to achieve to realistically secure a finals spot, moving beyond mere mathematical scenarios that have some teams still competing.
Penrith Panthers: 0 out of 6
Sydney Roosters: 0 out of 6
New Zealand Warriors: 1 out of 6
Cronulla Sharks: 1 out of 6
The Dolphins: 2 out of 6
South Sydney Rabbitohs: 3 out of 6
Newcastle Knights: 2 out of 5
North Queensland Cowboys: 2 out of 5
Canterbury Bulldogs: 4 out of 6
Manly Sea Eagles: 4 out of 5
Canberra Raiders: 4 out of 5
Melbourne Storm: 5 out of 5
Gold Coast Titans: Can't make it
Brisbane Broncos: Can't make it
Parramatta Eels: Can't make it
Wests Tigers: Can't make it
St George Illawarra Dragons: Mathematically out of contention
In the coming fortnight, it's expected that more teams will be eliminated from contention, while others will solidify their playoff positions.
Currently, the Penrith Panthers are in a strong position to secure their place in September-mathematically, they require just one more win.
The teams trailing them are likely to qualify in the next weeks, with the Sydney Roosters seemingly secure, while the New Zealand Warriors and Cronulla Sharks focus on maintaining their top four rankings rather than worrying about finals.