With only two rounds remaining before the 2026 NRL Finals, the competition is heating up at both ends of the Top 8. The Tigers' surprising victory over the Roosters has thrown the minor premiership race into disarray, while two teams outside the eight still have a chance to make the finals. Here's the perspective going into NRL Round 26 (teams listed as per current ladder):
Played 22, Won 16, Lost 6, Points Differential +295
Still to play:
Best finish: 1st
Predicted finish: 1st
After defeating the Rabbitohs in Round 25, the Warriors have surged past the Roosters and Panthers in terms of for and against, significantly boosting their chances for a top-two finish and possibly a second minor premiership. With two home games in Auckland left, they won't play in Australia again until the grand final, should they keep winning. Is this the year for Warriors fans?
Played 22, Won 16, Lost 6, Points Differential +294
Still to play:
Best finish: 1st
Predicted finish: 2nd
The Panthers secured a crucial win in Melbourne and now face a critical match against a determined Bulldogs team. A misstep could see them drop out of the top two, though their current points differential ensures a secure spot in the top four.
Played 22, Won 16, Lost 6, Points Differential +162
Still to play:
Best finish: 1st
Predicted finish: 3rd
The Roosters faced a shock defeat by the Tigers, putting them under pressure with tough games against the Dolphins and Bunnies ahead. They risk falling out of the top four if they don't rally soon.
Played 22, Won 15, Lost 7, Points Differential +136
Still to play:
Best finish: Top 2
Predicted finish: 4th
The Dolphins initially struggled against the Eels but pulled through to solidify their top-four standing. Their upcoming match with the Roosters will be a significant pre-finals test, as a defeat could allow the Sharks to surpass them.
Played 22, Won 14, Lost 8, Points Differential +173
Still to play:
Best finish: 4th
Predicted finish: 5th
The Sharks managed to halt a two-match losing streak against the Titans but still need to maintain momentum to secure a top-four finish. They remain favoured for a home final due to recent losses from the Knights and Rabbitohs.
Played 22, Won 13, Lost 9, Points Differential +56
Still to play:
Best finish: 5th
Predicted finish: 6th
The Knights suffered a surprising defeat at home to Manly, jeopardizing their top-four ambitions. They do have a bye in the final round, but must contend with a crucial away game against the Warriors first.
Played 22, Won 12, Lost 10, Points Differential +63
Still to play:
Best finish: Top 4
Predicted finish: 8th
Their loss to the Warriors wasn't entirely surprising, but it complicates matters; the Bunnies are just one win ahead of the Bulldogs. A significant final-round clash against the Roosters looms as they aim for a postseason return, needing a win against the Titans first to relieve pressure.
Played 22, Won 12, Lost 10, Points Differential -78
Still to play:
Best finish: 6th
Predicted finish: 7th
The Cowboys' recent bye keeps them marginally ahead of the Bulldogs, but their points differential is concerning, meaning they can't afford mistakes. They will play their next two matches at home and are expected to clinch a finals berth.
Played 21, Won 10, Lost 11, Points Differential -32
Still to play:
Best finish: 7th
Predicted finish: 9th
The Bulldogs rebounded from their loss to the Rabbitohs with a decisive win over the Dragons, keeping their finals hopes alive. They can secure 32 points if they win their final two matches, and their for and against is slightly better than North Queensland's, though worse than South Sydney's. It's going to be a tight contest.
Played 22, Won 10, Lost 12, Points Differential +66
Still to play:
Best finish: 8th
Predicted finish: 10th
They recently ended a six-game losing streak by defeating the Knights. Technically, a finish of 8th is still on the table, but it would require collapses from two of the Rabbitohs, Cowboys, and Bulldogs to make it a reality.
Played 22, Won 10, Lost 12, Points Differential -12
Still to play:
Best finish: 10th
Predicted finish: 11th
The Storm experienced a defeat against the Panthers at home and will end their season with away games against the Broncos and Sharks.
Played 23, Won 10, Lost 13, Points Differential -65
Still to play:
Best finish: 8th
Predicted finish: 12th
The Raiders ended their finals hopes after losing to the Broncos at home. They have just one remaining match in 2026, which is away against the Cowboys after a bye in Round 26.
Played 23, Won 8, Lost 14, Points Differential -197
Still to play:
Best finish: 11th
Predicted finish: 13th
The Eels got off to a good start against the Dolphins but ultimately fell short. Finals are no longer viable, and the focus has shifted to preparations for 2027.
Played 22, Won 8, Lost 14, Points Differential -212
Still to play:
Best finish: 11th
Predicted finish: 14th
The Tigers shocked the Roosters in Round 25 but will face two challenging away games as their season concludes. They are likely to finish better than last year's champions, providing a small consolation.
Played 22, Won 6, Lost 16, Points Differential -162
Still to play:
Best finish: 13th
Predicted finish: 16th
The Broncos managed a win in Canberra, and with the Dragons losing to the Bulldogs, they have avoided the risk of finishing with another wooden spoon. They have two tough matches left before they can officially close out the 2026 season.
Played 22, Won 4, Lost 18, Points Differential -293
Still to play:
Best finish: 16th
Predicted finish: 17th
The Dragons' heavy defeat against the Bulldogs all but seals their fate for last place in 2026. However, there is optimism for a brighter future ahead.