A Papua New Guinea victory over Samoa in Port Moresby would sharply improve England's chances of reaching the semi-finals, though Samoa is heavily favoured.
England can still finish second on the combined Group B and C ladder and earn a likely semi-final against Australia.
To do so, Brian McDermott's side must beat France and Papua New Guinea; the latter match will be played in Wollongong's evening cool, not Port Moresby's afternoon heat and humidity.
England also needs Tonga to defeat Samoa in Sydney next weekend, preferably by a large margin.
Head-to-head results decide tied positions, so a Samoan victory would almost certainly end England's campaign, with Tonga advancing after beating England in Perth.
Even if Tonga wins, England must finish with a better points differential than Samoa across their three matches.
After the opening round, Samoa stood at +74, while England was at -18.
PNG's match against Samoa this afternoon could help narrow that gap, followed by England needing a big win over France tonight in Perth.
Tonga's 36-0 win over Lebanon on Friday night does not change England's path, and England's opening 30-12 defeat to Tonga has left little room for error.
England is not out of contention, but needs strong performances and help from PNG and Tonga.