George Williams said England's chances of reaching the Rugby League World Cup semi-finals were "Pretty rubbish, to be honest," despite a 34-12 win over Papua New Guinea on Friday.
England needed a 69-point for-and-against swing on Samoa to qualify, leaving them reliant on Tonga beating Samoa by at least 47 points on Sunday.
That outcome looks unlikely: Samoa beat Tonga 34-6 in last year's Pacific Championships. "W're relying on Tonga to do a more than massive job now. So yeah, there was a chance but gutted with that," Williams said.
England's position followed a 30-12 opening defeat to Tonga and an 82-0 win over France. Against PNG, they surged to a 22-0 lead after 20 minutes, with tries from Matty Ashton, AJ Brimson, Dom Young and Harry Smith.
A Hugo Savala penalty made it 24-0 at half-time, but England's errors mounted as they chased more points. PNG's Dudley Dotoi and Gairo Voro scored in the second half before Morgan Knowles and Mikey Lewis added late tries for England.
"We were good the first 20 and then the wheels fell off," Williams said. "Too many errors and, credit to PNG, they didn't stop fighting."
Australia will face the Samoa-Tonga match loser in the semi-finals, regardless of their result against the Cook Islands on Saturday. New Zealand, who play Fiji on Saturday, will meet the Samoa-Tonga winner if they advance.