The upcoming 2026 NRL season promises to be one of the most competitive we've seen in a while, as several teams are vying for that pivotal edge over their rivals.
According to historical trends, at least one unexpected team will emerge as a contender. But which team will it be and where will the shock come from?
In this piece, we'll explore lessons from this century regarding the likely premiership winners, the potential shape of the top eight, and the prospects for teams that struggled in 2025 to significantly improve this time around.
We will examine a few key areas, starting with the top eight.
Don't miss this week's full Loose Carry episode featuring Ryan Hoffman, Lee Addison, Darren Parkin, and host Phoenix Trinidad here.
Top Eight Turnover
Since the year 2000, every season-except for 2002-has seen at least two teams change in the top eight from the previous year.
The past four seasons have recorded three changes each year. Last season, Canberra, the minor premiers, finished 9th, while Brisbane, the eventual champions, came from 12th place outside of the top eight.
The Warriors made a significant comeback after missing the finals in 2024, spending a substantial part of the season competing for a top four position. The teams that fell out last year included Newcastle, North Queensland, and Manly.