Canterbury's hopes of making the finals are hanging by a thread following a 24-10 defeat to Penrith at CommBank Stadium, who now eye a top-two finish.
Second-rower Liam Martin capped off a week of contract talks by scoring two tries, helping the Panthers ascend to the top of the ladder on Friday night.
A rocky start to the season has left the Bulldogs chasing a top-eight spot for most of 2026, and they could officially be out of the finals by Saturday night if North Queensland and South Sydney win their round-26 matches.
"It's disappointing because if we played like that in the first 11 rounds, we wouldn't be sitting here in this situation," expressed Bulldogs coach Cameron Ciraldo.
"While we were really brave and good and tried hard, they were just a little bit better than us in most areas. Three tries to two probably summed it up."
To secure a finals berth, the Bulldogs must defeat Brisbane next week and hope the Cowboys lose their last two games, both at home against lower-ranked teams.
They also need ninth-placed Manly to lose to the Warriors in the season's final round.
During a match that felt like a finals clash, the teams were separated by a trio of penalty goals from Nathan Cleary as they entered the final 15 minutes of play.
But right after Cleary's last penalty, centre Casey McLean made a crucial inside run for Penrith's third try, widening the gap to three scores.
Since the State of Origin period, the Panthers had struggled but looked more like their four-time premiership-winning selves against the Bulldogs.
"We've played quite a few good, hard games lately, but I felt like that was the best 80 minutes for some time. It had to be," said Panthers coach Ivan Cleary.
"We were pretty patient and ended up sort of coming away with it through the second half. Pretty happy with that."
The Panthers completed all their sets until the 49th minute, with Cleary using his impressive kicking skills to keep the momentum going.
Notably, Bulldogs fullback Connor Tracey failed to handle a floating Cleary bomb, allowing Martin to scoop up the ball for his second try.
Martin had earlier opened the scoring following a one-handed offload from fullback Dylan Edwards, who was active throughout the match.
The Panthers can secure a top-two finish and two home finals by winning against Wests Tigers next week, though they may rest key players as they prepare for the postseason.
Lachie Galvin, the Bulldogs' standout player in their round-six victory over Penrith, excelled again, assisting both tries for the visitors.
He delivered a lovely cut-out pass to right-center Matt Burton and later set Jacob Preston up with his signature short ball.
"(Galvin) has been really good all year," Ciraldo stated, while halves partner Stephen Crichton had a more challenging night, misfiring grubber kicks and missing opportunities.